The voice
over says, "This is the Syria-Turkey border, and this is an operation of
the Free Syrian Army [FSA] ... The Gate [that would be the Syrian side of the
border, housing the Gate checkpoint] is going to be seized."
What this
means is that Turkey is sheltering the FSA right on the border, only a few
meters - and not kilometers - away from Syrian territory. Way beyond hosting a
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) command and control center in
Iskenderun for
months now - a fact already reported by Asia Times Online - Turkey has now
advanced right to the border, enabling a back-and-forth by heavily weaponized
guerrillas/mercenaries to attack a sovereign state.
Imagine a
similar scenario happening, say, at a Mexican-US border in Arizona or Texas.
This can
be seen as a very peculiar Ankara interpretation of "safe havens" and
"humanitarian corridors" as outlined by what can be seen as the prime
blueprint for regime change in Syria: a report [2] by the Saban Center at the
Brookings Institution, authored by the usual cocktail of Israeli firsters and
Qatar-affiliated Middle East "experts".
So expect
to see this movie generating countless sequels; the FSA attacking a Syrian
border checkpoint, killing soldiers and then retreating under a hail of bullets,
which will inevitably hit a nearby Syrian refugee camp.
The
border escalation graphically illustrates the wider scenario: civil war.
Turkish
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu - of the fabled "zero problems with our
neighbors" policy - had to abruptly cut short his trip to China and return
to Turkey because of the border escalation. It would be very enlightening to
learn how the Beijing leadership told him that Turkey's agent provocateur
gimmicks amount to playing with a ball of fire.
The
border escalation also proves that NATO has less than zero interest in the
success of the ceasefire widely brandished as the Kofi Annan plan (that's in
fact a diluted version of both the Russian and Chinese plans). Trouble will
escalate further - as suggested by a RT report. [3]
Obviously,
a sovereign government - in this case Syria - had to demand written guarantees
that its weaponized opponents would also abide by the Annan ceasefire.
The
single-most important reason that they won't - and they have already stressed
so publicly - is that not only the FSA and splinter guerrillas will continue to
be weaponized by Qatar and the House of Saud, and sprinkled with Libyan
"rebels" flown into Syria; it's that two United Nations Security
Council permanent members - Britain and France - also have their own special
forces on the ground, engaged in training, intel and combat operations.
The
trillion Turkish lira question is whether Ankara will go one step beyond and
actually implement those "safe havens"; that would amount to being
directly involved in the Syrian civil war, ie, a declaration of war against
Damascus. That's exactly what the FSA has been begging the Turks to do. But
even that would not be enough to topple the Bashar al-Assad regime.
As for
the Assad police state/military apparatus, it just has to be wily enough not to
be provoked into an orgy of torture, summary executions and artillery bombardment
- the necessary condition to maintain the key diplomatic support of BRICS
members Russia and China. Once again, it's average Syrians, caught in the
middle, who will be the tragic losers.
Pepe Escobar
Notes
1. See here.
2. See here.
3. See here.
Pepe
Escobar is the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into
Liquid War (Nimble Books, 2007) and Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge.
His most recent book, just out, is Obama does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009).
He may be
reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com
(Copyright
2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd
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